Manufacturing output increased by just 1.7% in October following revised growth of just over 2.5% in the first nine months of the year. Should we be too disappointed? Not really. The average growth rate of manufacturing since 1948 has been just 1.5%. Hence the dwindling share of national output over the timescale. So much for the march of the makers rebuilding the workshop of the world and the so called rebalancing agenda.
We are revising our forecast for growth in the year from 3.7% to just 2.7% as a result of the revised ONS data. Capital goods output increased by 2.1% as the strong rally in consumer goods, up by 6.5% continues.
Utilities, energy and extractives continue to disappoint. Overall production output increased by just 1.1%.