In its UK Economic Outlook published this month, Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, the largest Chamber in the UK, has forecasted growth of 2.9% this year, but, in-line with Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s latest warnings, also predicts interest rates may have to rise in the Autumn.
The Economic Outlook charts UK growth, labour market trends, government borrowing and inflation and has been designed to help businesses maximise the opportunities the economy is now delivering.
It also predicts that the service sector will continue to underpin the recovery but manufacturing output is expected to grow by 4% and the construction sector, underpinned by the strength of the housing market, will expand by 3.7%.
The quarterly forecasts are generated from the Chamber’s Chief Economist’s own GDP model which also incorporates the Manchester Index™, a key indicator which gives it the ability to “nowcast” the country’s economic performance.
Commenting on the latest outlook, John Ashcroft (pictured), Chief Economist at Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce, said:
“We are now shaking off the shackles of the recent recession and following growth of 1.7% in 2013 we forecast growth of 2.9% this year and 2.8% for 2015 and 2016. Whilst the service sector will lead the continued recovery, both construction and manufacturing are also strong contributors, delivering a broad-based recovery.
“The outlook is now at its best for more than six years, however, if current trends in retail sales, housing and the car market continue, UK interest rates may have to rise in the Autumn. For the year as a whole we expect growth up, inflation down, jobs up and borrowing down. Just the trade figures will continue to disappoint.
“The Chamber will continue to ensure its research is ever more applicable and relevant to its members so they can use this information in making their own business decisions.”
The Manchester Index™ is derived from the Chamber’s Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) results which, run by the national Chambers of Commerce network, is the largest and most authoritative business survey in the UK.
The QES results have reliably anticipated the onset of both recessions since the early 1990s, and regularly predict national and regional economic performance trends across a variety of different sectors.
This quarter’s survey is live until 18th June and can be completed here: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/qes
To read this quarter's UK Economic Outlook, click here.